Smart-Money Analysis

The smart-money module identifies wallets that are more likely to have an information edge, research edge, or execution edge in specific prediction markets.

What Is Smart Money

In PolyEdge, smart money is not simply a large address. It should be judged across multiple dimensions:

• Historical win rate and actual PnL.
• Whether participating market types are stable.
• Whether trades occur before information changes.
• Whether returns remain stable across different liquidity environments.
• Whether there are unusually concentrated, unsustainable, or high-risk behaviors.

Wallet Dashboard

The wallet dashboard shows wallet returns, win rates, trade records, active markets, and positions. Users can use it to validate whether an address is worth following over time.

Signal Strength

Smart-money signal strength can be understood from these angles:

Dimension	Explanation
Wallet quality	Whether the wallet has shown stable historical performance
Market relevance	Whether the wallet is good at the current market type
Timing lead	Whether the trade occurred before obvious news or odds movement
Amount share	Whether the trade size is enough to indicate a real view
Follow-up validation	Whether more similar wallets follow

Usage Suggestions

• Do not look only at a single profit; look at the long-term curve.
• Do not follow large trades blindly; check whether the wallet is good at that market.
• Stay cautious in low-liquidity markets, where smart money may also disturb prices.
• Validate with paper copy trading for a period before considering live execution.

Common Misconceptions

Misconception	Better Approach
Large traders are smart money	Judge by historical performance and market type
Higher win rate is always better	Also check profit/loss ratio, sample size, and drawdown
Follow immediately when a signal appears	Check liquidity, price, and risk limits first
No management is needed after copying	Review regularly and adjust parameters